The research indicates not only that the number of critically indebted countries has risen, but that a further rise in debt levels next year is to be expected and that we can expect a number of fresh debt crises post-2017.

Summary

116 countries show one, several or all indicators in a critical range.

The highest average debt indicators are shown by affected countries in the CIS / CEE and the MENA regions.

In 89 countries the debt situation has worsened over the last four years.

In 27 countries it has either improved or remained stable. In 48 countries not one of the five indicators has improved by at least 10% between 2011 and 2015.

The rise in debt indicators becomes more dynamic. While in last year‘s analysis the relationship between improvements and deteriorations of debt indicators over the four year reference period was 1:2, this has changed to 1:3.5 this year. This tendency is most acute in the MENA region.

Most threatened by a renewed debt crisis are countries that already have shown high indicators before and could not improve their situations. In the five regional groups this relates to the following countries:

• CIS / CEE: Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Montenegro, Georgia, Croatia, Ukraine, Cyprus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Mozambique, Ghana, Mauritania, The Gambia, Sudan, Mauritius, Zimbabwe
• Latin America / Caribbean: Brazil, Colombia, Barbados, El Salvador, Antigua and Barbuda, Uruguay, Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Nicaragua, Venezuel
• Asia / Pacific: Bhutan, Samoa, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Tonga, Pakistan, Lao
• North Africa / Middle East: Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon.

The most affected country groups are small island developing states, post-completion point HIPCs, transformation states and extractive economies.